ỹ_it = Σ_{l=1}^{2} (A_l + D_l · 1_{exp,i}) ỹ_{i,t-l} + ε̃_it Figure 13.1: Importer GDP trough ≈ -0.004 pp at h=2 Exporter GDP peak ≈ +0.004 pp at h=2 Importer infl peak ≈ +0.008 pp at h=3 Exporter ...
y_it = α_i + Φ_i y_{i,t-1} + Λ_{i0} y*_it + Λ_{i1} y*_{i,t-1} + ε_it USA closed VAR(2) + weakly exogenous oil (dominant unit) ...
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