Dutch Book Theorem Explained: Profit from Misjudged Probabilities

Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.
MedPage Today on MSN

Opportunistic Cholesterol Gene Screens: Good in Theory Only?

The ROAR trial tested the hypothesis that returning familial hypercholesterolemia-associated genetic results leads to ...
eLife

Perceptual predictions track subjective, over objective, statistical structure

This important study reports three experiments examining how the subjective experience of task regularities influences perceptual decision-making. Although the evidence linking subjective ratings to ...
eLife

Retrosplenial cortex enables context-dependent goal-directed sensorimotor transformation

This important study combines optogenetic manipulations and wide-field imaging to show that the retrosplenial cortex controls behavioral responses to whisker deflection in a context-dependent manner.
InfoQ

Things Software Developers Think They Don’t Need to Care about, But Can Impact Their Job

Holly Cummins gave a keynote at Goto Copenhagen where she urged developers to care about overlooked issues that shape their ...
Thorax

Disparities in lung function trajectories among tobacco-exposed individuals

Background The relationship of social determinants of health (SDOH), environmental exposures and medical history to lung function trajectories is underexplored. A better understanding of these ...
JSTOR Daily

The Annals of Probability

This title is part of a longer publication history. The full run of this journal will be searched. TITLE HISTORY A title history is the publication history of a journal and includes a listing of the ...
Investopedia

Understanding Subjective Probability: Definitions and Examples

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...
BMJ Global Health

Public preferences and decision-making for mpox vaccination in the African region: a multinational discrete choice experiment

Introduction After the WHO prequalified the first vaccine against mpox, we aimed to identify the influence of vaccine ...
IEEE

Sparse Bayesian Learning for Switching Network Identification

Abstract: Learning dynamical networks based on time series of nodal states is of significant interest in systems science, computer science, and control engineering. Despite recent progress in network ...
National Bureau of Economic Research

Unconditional Cash Transfers: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Randomized Evaluations in Low and Middle Income Countries

We use Bayesian meta-analysis methods to estimate the impact of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs). Aggregating evidence from 115 studies of 72 UCT programs in middle and low income countries, we ...
IEEE

A Review on Bayesian Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning Models Enhancing Predictive Accuracy and Model Interpretability

Abstract: This research study reviews the statistical fundamentals of machine learning with a focus on Bayesian methods to quantify the uncertainty in model predictions. Bayesian statistics provides a ...