Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

WE do not make a general statement to the effect that subjective probabilities in all situations diminish with increase in age, but merely refer to the subjective probability of winning the uncertain ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

AI researchers use the expression “P(doom”) to mean the probability that the rise of artificial intelligence will have a disastrous effect on humanity, such as extinction or enslavement. Expert ...