The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of events happening. The greater the proportion of times an event can happen the greater (or more likely) the probability. Events can be ordered by the ...

The outcomes of rolling a six-sided die are: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. A probability of zero means an outcome is impossible. A probability of 1 means an outcome is certain ...

When the mathematicians Jeff Kahn and Gil Kalai first posed their “expectation threshold” conjecture in 2006, they didn’t believe it themselves. Their claim — a broad assertion about mathematical ...

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles. In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent ...