We develop a mixed-frequency, tree-based, gradient-boosting model designed to assess the default risk of privately held firms in real time. The model uses data from publicly-traded companies to ...

Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors. The blue line is the firm's one year default probability. The yellow line is the annualized ten year default ...

Structural models of default are widely used to analyze corporate bond spreads, but have generally been unable to explain why risk premiums are as high as they are. This credit spread puzzle can be ...

Google today released its fast and cheap Gemini 3 Flash model, based on the Gemini 3 released last month, looking to steal OpenAI’s thunder. The company is also making this the default model in the ...

Using a two-country monetary union framework with financial frictions, we quantify the efficacy of targeted asset purchases, as well as expectations of such programs, in the presence of sovereign ...

OpenAI updated the default model for ChatGPT to its new GPT-5.5 Instant, along with a new memory capability that finally shows which context shaped responses — at least some of them. This limitation ...