We live in a world where a lot of things seem to happen by pure chance, from winning the Lotto to losing your car keys. But the truth is, the likelihood of many everyday things happening is heavily ...

Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.

How likely you think something is to happen depends on what you already believe about the circumstances. That is the simple concept behind Bayes’ rule, an approach to calculating probabilities, first ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Writes about the future of finance and technology, follow for more. Joint probability teaches us to calculate combined outcomes.

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...