Explore a probability-based forecast for the S&P 500 in 2026, highlighting risks, upside potential, and key tech sector influences.

As of Aug. 15, J.P. Morgan Research indicates that the probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2024 has hit 35%, up from their 25% midyear estimate. While inflation seems to be slowing down, ...

Probability Distribution Notes: Probability is a fundamental aspect of mathematics that helps us understand and quantify uncertainty. Mastery of this subject is essential for students, as it has ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...

Julia Kagan is a financial/consumer journalist and former senior editor, personal finance, of Investopedia. David Kindness is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and an expert in the fields of ...

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of events happening. The greater the proportion of times an event can happen the greater (or more likely) the probability. Events can be ordered by the ...

Volatility metrics tied to bitcoin BTC $89,558.82 and the S&P 500 have are flashing green, signalling a potential synchronized year-end bull run amid surging Fed rate cut odds. Volmex's options-based ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

Artificial intelligence experts have been asking each other a question lately: "What's your p(doom)?" It's both a dark in-joke and potentially one of the most ...