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Normal distribution curve that illustrates standard deviations. Each band has 1 standard deviation, and the labels indicate the approximate proportion of area . Source: M. W. Toews Creative Commons ...

We’ve seen a number of outlier events in 2016, but the experts predicted them poorly and are labeling them “black swans.” According to Nassim Taleb, black swan events are highly unexpected for a given ...

ABSTRACT A statistical framework is presented for the assessment of climatological trends in the frequency of rare and extreme weather events. The methodology applies to long-term records of event ...

Welcome to my new blog here on Forbes.com. Over the new few months I’m going to be talking about a couple of quite disparate but fascinating areas: book publishing and high-impact low-probability ...

Adam Schiff, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence committee, wondered aloud about coincidences. A column by Charles Blow in the New York Times was titled “Dwindling Odds of Coincidence.” The ...