NORFOLK, Va. — When I started as a professional meteorologist in 1980, long-range hurricane forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) went out three days, or 72 hours. It would be over 20 ...

As Hurricane Ian bore down on Florida, normally reliable computer forecast models couldn’t agree on where the killer storm would land. But government meteorologists are now figuring out what went ...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on — and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a ...

Soon after the midterm elections, we began our regular process of evaluating how FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts performed. We quickly discovered an error: We were using out-of-date data for one important ...

The Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast just shifted slightly, but it’s not because of anything that happened in politics. Rather, it’s because ...

Decades of improvements in tropical cyclone forecasting have led to slimmer and more accurate hurricane track cones with this year’s ubiquitous funnel 3% to 5% smaller as compared to 2024. The cone, ...