Treasury yield curve outlook: 3‑month T‑bill most likely 1–2% in 10 years; 2y/10y spread turns positive. See inversion odds ...
As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...
In June 2025, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady, a key tool to influence the economy. While the Fed takes a “wait and see” approach to future interest rate cuts, investors ...
NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Bond investors are buying longer-term maturities up to 10-year debt and ramping up bets on a steeper yield curve, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest ...
The US fixed-income markets extended their positive trajectory into 2025’s final quarter. The Morningstar US Core Bond Index, a proxy for the US-dollar-denominated investment-grade bond market, ...
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