Discover the base rate fallacy's impact on investing decisions. Learn how overlooking this cognitive bias can lead to financial misjudgments and market misconceptions.

Two wrongs don't make a right, but they make a good excuse. ~ Thomas Szasz One of the most famous findings in the psychology of prediction is the phenomenon of base rate neglect. People mainly rely on ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The base rate fallacy is a cognitive bias that causes us to ...