Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The base rate fallacy is a cognitive bias that causes us to ...

With the constant stream of data about COVID-19, it can be hard to make sense of all the numbers. We look at the base rate fallacy, and how some people are making this mistake when assessing risk.

When we try to follow the shifting path of the pandemic, it's easy to get lost in the numbers. Not all of us are statisticians. Amanda Aronczyk of NPR's Planet Money podcast brings us a fallacy to ...